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Brand new List! Brand new Blog!

July 16, 2008
tags: ,

I’ve decided to move the blog over to a different host because I think it may be a bit more flexible and perhaps more versatile.  I did import all the old posts from the blogspot location.  I’ll figure out soon how to include some way of getting an email or alert whenever there’s a new post.

But for now, here’s the new and improved group watchlist as of the last few weeks.  I shortened the list name a bit from the original, so hopefully everyone can now successfully subscribe from the Investools public watchlists page.  Search either for my name, Matthew Curran, or NJ Group List.

A bit of big picture perspective for market posture:

Looking a touch closer with fibs shows an interesting retracement to the 50% line and we’re right now at the 23.6% line.  Bear rally from this level?  Perhaps.  I’m no Feb expert, but this could have some significance.  But as always, this is just one long term indicator among many indicators.

Looking closer, we can see the fairly clear double top this year in testing the old highs.  The neckline was broken and then acted as resistance for the first major lower high.  Now putting in a major lower low.  Could be just the firming of a longer bear market

(click on image to see it bigger)

Looking at the daily chart I’ve got to call this bearish on all time frames.  Seems pretty clear.  The Market forecast I would also have to call Bearish.  Despite putting in yet another bullish cluster yesterday, I won’t think much of these until the intermediate line at least heads toward the 20 line again, preferrably crossing it ot the upside.   The intermediate term line is now at 5.8.  Rather low.  However, this market forecast gives very little to hold on to.  Even the near term divergence(blue line against price) of the last month and a half was broken and nullified.

The VIX is the kicker.  This weekly chart shows the long term move from a very low range to the more recent range with highs in the mid 30’s.  Options traders and talking heads have been wondering when and if the VIX will test those former highs.  Only then, it is thought, will we have seen the true fear and panic that could mean a short term bottom and potential relief rally.

In support of resistance to a higher VIX in addition to the horizontal, the blue arrow showing the uptrend support since early ’07 could now provide some diagonal resistance.

Notice that on the daily chart, the VIX has not had a close above 31.  Two closes highlighed in yellow show those two days.  So I don’t know that there’s any reason for us to expect or require a close above 31, but perhaps a nasty intraday swing up there would be sufficient?  Regardless, it’ll be hard to trust any kind of actual rally attempt until the trend support since mid-May is broken.

Overall picture seems to be fairly clear.  Bearish, Bearish, and Bearish until the VIX shows some sign of topping and, more importantly, turning over.

Let’s make sure to be ready if there is a bear rally!

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